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Claim DowGWB - DJIA up for Bush, dn for Kerry

Category: Finance:US Finance Politics:US Politics JUDGED at 78
Owner:5881, Thales
Judge:38, highlander
created:2004/09/26
due date:2004/12/01

The Claim

Take the first day, after the U.S. election is held, by which all 5 of the following news outlets have published headlines agreeing on a winner (even if their prediction is incorrect):
nytimes.com, foxnews.com, cnn.com, msnbc.com, news.bbc.co.uk .
Call that day "Result Day."

Let X = the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on the first business day after Result Day.
Let Y = the closing value of the DJIA from the business day prior to Result Day.
(Thus, X-Y reflects the market gain over 2 business days, or 1 business day if Result Day happens on a weekend.)

If a Republican president has been elected, this claim pays 50 + ((X-Y)/Y * 1000).
If a non-Republican president has been elected, this claim pays 50 - ((X-Y)/Y * 1000).
Results get capped at 100/0 for a 5% loss or rally.

For example, this claim would pay:
100 if Bush wins and the Dow rises 5% or more.
100 if Kerry wins and the Dow falls 5% or more.
75 if Bush wins and the Dow rises 2.5%.
75 if Kerry wins and the Dow falls 2.5%.
50 if either candidate wins and the Dow stays put.
25 if Bush wins and the Dow falls 2.5%.
25 if Kerry wins and the Dow rises 2.5%.
0 if Bush wins and the Dow falls 5% or more.
0 if Kerry wins and the Dow rises 5% or more.

Judge's Statement

None

The Market

Your Buy YES Orders Players Buying YES Coupons
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Price Plot for life of DowGWB
Last trade price: 0
Current ask price: 100
Current bid price: 0
Pairs outstanding: 591
Players participating: 14
View the ticker for this Claim.

Your cash balance: 11971.91
Your holdings in this Claim: 0
Your UID:
Your password:
Your Sell YES Orders Players Selling YES Coupons
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