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Claim 15GHz - 15GHz CPU Availability Date

Category: Science & Technology:Technology Science & Technology:Computer Technology & Benchmarks Science & Technology:Computer Industry bid 0, ask 4, last 1
Owner:2568, JPO
Judge:3607, MatrixMan
created:2003/04/24
due date:2014/12/31

The Claim

A scaled claim based on the date of commercial availability of a CPU microprocessor with a clock speed of 15.0 GHz or higher.

The claim value is based on the date of commercial availability, beginning with a value of 1.00 for January 2006, and declining by 0.01 per month.

If a 15.0 GHz processor becomes available before January 1, 2006, the payoff will be 1.00. If a 15.0 GHz processor does not become available until after April 30, 2014, the payoff will be 0.00. A chart showing actual payoff values for each month is shown at the bottom of this description. Note that higher prices correspond to earlier projected release dates. If you think that the current price projects too early of a release date, you should sell - if you think the projected release date is too late, you should buy.

A "CPU microprocessor" is defined as a chip designed to function as the general-purpose central processing unit controlling the majority of the operations of a personal computing device (desktop, laptop, server, handheld, or otherwise). Both RISC and CISC chips from any chip manufacturer are allowable under this claim. This claim excludes special-purpose chips that are not designed to run the general-purpose operations of an entire computing device. For example, graphics accelerators, sound processors, video processors, and specialized DSP chips would not qualify for this claim.

Commercial availability is defined by the date that a computer chip manufacturer, reseller, or distributor publicly offers for sale the processor or a computer containing the processor. Chips that have been announced but are not yet available for purchase do not qualify under this claim. A chip that is being sold to systems manufacturers but is not yet available in retail computer systems does qualify under this claim.

Payout Summary
YearJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
20061.000.990.980.970.960.950.940.930.920.910.900.89
20070.880.870.860.850.840.830.820.810.800.790.780.77
20080.760.750.740.730.720.710.700.690.680.670.660.65
20090.640.630.620.610.600.590.580.570.560.550.540.53
20100.520.510.500.490.480.470.460.450.440.430.420.41
20110.400.390.380.370.360.350.340.330.320.310.300.29
20120.280.270.260.250.240.230.220.210.200.190.180.17
20130.160.150.140.130.120.110.100.090.080.070.060.05
20140.040.030.020.01

Judge's Statement

If the wording is found to be ambiguous I will judge on the basis of the obvious intent. If the intent is ambiguous I will judge on the basis of precise wording. If both are ambiguous or if both are clear but conflict, I will look for a solution that causes the least damage to FX as a market and game.

I will judge this claim based on the commerical availability of the first 15 GHz or greater microprocessor released by *any* chip manufacturer.

Some interesting links:

CPU Info Center

ChipGeek.com

Moore's Law

Tom's Hardware Guide to Processors

The Market

Price Plot for life of 15GHz
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