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Claim GW2030 - Global warming 2000-2030

Category: Science & Technology:General Science bid 33, ask 35, last 34
Owner:7612, jdannan
Judge:3126, Varulv
created:2005/02/22
due date:2033/06/01

The Claim

This is a scaled claim that pays $0.01 for each 0.02C by which the globally averaged surface air temperature averaged over the 5 year interval 2028-32 exceeds the temperature averaged over 1998-2002. If the temperature in 2028-32 is no warmer than 1998-2002, the claim pays $0, and if the temperature is more than 2C warmer, the claim pays $1.

Note: Globally averaged surface air temperatures are currently available from NASA GISS at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/ . The temperature in 1998-2002 was 0.56C warmer than the 1951-1980 baseline.

Payout Summary
Warming (C)+.00+.02+.04+.06+.08+.10+.12+.14+.16+.18
0.00.000.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09
0.20.100.110.120.130.140.150.160.170.180.19
0.40.200.210.220.230.240.250.260.270.280.29
0.60.300.310.320.330.340.350.360.370.380.39
0.80.400.410.420.430.440.450.460.470.480.49
1.00.500.510.520.530.540.550.560.570.580.59
1.20.600.610.620.630.640.650.660.670.680.69
1.40.700.710.720.730.740.750.760.770.780.79
1.60.800.810.820.830.840.850.860.870.880.89
1.80.900.910.920.930.940.950.960.970.980.99
2.01.00

Judge's Statement

All players that have participated so far on 26 March 2005 agreed to correct the note such that it reads as follows:

Note: Globally averaged surface air temperatures are currently available from NASA GISS through http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/ , with a table of values at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt . The temperature in 1998-2002 was 0.44C warmer than the 1951-1980 baseline.

As of August 2009, the table of globally averaged surface air temperatures could be accessed through http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt, the main page being at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.

The Market

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