Claim GW2030 - Global warming 2000-2030

The Claim

This is a scaled claim that pays $0.01 for each 0.02C by which the globally averaged surface air temperature averaged over the 5 year interval 2028-32 exceeds the temperature averaged over 1998-2002. If the temperature in 2028-32 is no warmer than 1998-2002, the claim pays $0, and if the temperature is more than 2C warmer, the claim pays $1.

Note: Globally averaged surface air temperatures are currently available from NASA GISS at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/ . The temperature in 1998-2002 was 0.56C warmer than the 1951-1980 baseline.

Payout Summary

Warming (°C)	+.00	+.02	+.04	+.06	+.08	+.10	+.12	+.14	+.16	+.18
0.0	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.09
0.2	0.10	0.11	0.12	0.13	0.14	0.15	0.16	0.17	0.18	0.19
0.4	0.20	0.21	0.22	0.23	0.24	0.25	0.26	0.27	0.28	0.29
0.6	0.30	0.31	0.32	0.33	0.34	0.35	0.36	0.37	0.38	0.39
0.8	0.40	0.41	0.42	0.43	0.44	0.45	0.46	0.47	0.48	0.49
1.0	0.50	0.51	0.52	0.53	0.54	0.55	0.56	0.57	0.58	0.59
1.2	0.60	0.61	0.62	0.63	0.64	0.65	0.66	0.67	0.68	0.69
1.4	0.70	0.71	0.72	0.73	0.74	0.75	0.76	0.77	0.78	0.79
1.6	0.80	0.81	0.82	0.83	0.84	0.85	0.86	0.87	0.88	0.89
1.8	0.90	0.91	0.92	0.93	0.94	0.95	0.96	0.97	0.98	0.99
2.0	1.00

Judge's Statement

All players that have participated so far on 26 March 2005 agreed to correct the note such that it reads as follows:

Note: Globally averaged surface air temperatures are currently available from NASA GISS through http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/ , with a table of values at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt . The temperature in 1998-2002 was 0.44C warmer than the 1951-1980 baseline.

As of August 2009, the table of globally averaged surface air temperatures could be accessed through http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt, the main page being at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.

The Market

     1 @ 1   yoshi53 (8969)
     1 @ 1   MatrixMan (3607)
     3 @ 1   jar (6504)
   100 @ 1   crandles (7886)
    41 @ 10  jar (6504)
    49 @ 10  crandles (7886)
   100 @ 12  crandles (7886)
    50 @ 14  crandles (7886)
    30 @ 18  crandles (7886)
     1 @ 20  favorunmerited (3167)
    20 @ 20  jar (6504)
    21 @ 20  crandles (7886)
    20 @ 21  crandles (7886)
   100 @ 25  jdannan (7612)
     2 @ 26  jar (6504)
    15 @ 29  jdannan (7612)
   100 @ 30  daffy_duc (6888)
     1 @ 31  Oracle (167)
    35 @ 31  jdannan (7612)
    12 @ 32  jar (6504)
    44 @ 32  Wade Enterprises (9004)
   100 @ 32  daffy_duc (6888)
     1 @ 33  GTmechanic (9750)
     1 @ 33  Oracle (167)
     2 @ 33  wilian (4844)
    12 @ 33  jar (6504)
    44 @ 33  crandles (7886)
     5 @ 34  jar (6504)
   100 @ 34  crandles (7886)
     1 @ 35  jar (6504)
     1 @ 35  Oracle (167)
    50 @ 35  crandles (7886)
     1 @ 36  jar (6504)
     

Price Plot for life of GW2030

Last trade price: 42 Current ask price: 40 Current bid price: 36 Pairs outstanding: 1120 Players participating: 29 View the ticker for this Claim. Your cash balance: 1335.38 Your holdings in this Claim: -457 Your UID: Your password:

     2 @ 40  Oracle (167)
    10 @ 41  Oracle (167)
    15 @ 42  crandles (7886)
    10 @ 42  Oracle (167)
    20 @ 43  crandles (7886)
    10 @ 43  Oracle (167)
    73 @ 44  crandles (7886)
    44 @ 44  blocko (8576)
    10 @ 44  Oracle (167)
    10 @ 45  Oracle (167)
     1 @ 45  jar (6504)
     1 @ 45  meltwater (7879)
    46 @ 46  blocko (8576)
    10 @ 46  Oracle (167)
    10 @ 47  Oracle (167)
    48 @ 48  blocko (8576)
    10 @ 48  Oracle (167)
    10 @ 49  Oracle (167)
    50 @ 50  blocko (8576)
    10 @ 50  Oracle (167)
    10 @ 55  ezrollers (7692)
     1 @ 59  jar (6504)
     3 @ 60  agatsu (10211)
    10 @ 65  ezrollers (7692)
     1 @ 79  jar (6504)
    88 @ 80  Jonathan Kaplan (4493)
   100 @ 99  jar (6504)
     1 @ 99  crandles (7886)