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Claim HmPC - 50% of US Homes w/PC 1/1/99

Category: Science & Technology:Computer Industry JUDGED at 100
Owner:23, ksims
Judge:960, Outside Appeals Panel
created:1996/07/04
due date:1999/03/31

The Claim

"50% of U.S. Households to have a PC by 1 Jan 1999."

As of the end of 1995, International Data Corporation (IDC) claimed 40% of U.S. households had a PC, and Computer Intelligence InfoCorp (CII)claimed 38.4% (average- 39.1%). With a 4% increase in penetration each year, U.S. home PC penetration could reach 50% by the end of 1998.

The penetration number will be calculated by averaging the results from both companies. If for some reason, neither company is no longer in business, 2 well-respected 3rd party research firms will be used for the necessary information.

By PC, I do not intend this to include consumer electronic devices, such as the Apple/Bandai Pippin and any future progeny, or the much-hyped network computer (NC). As these products become to look more "PC-like", it may be difficult to draw a line between these thin clients and full-featured PCs -- however, for the sake of putting a stake in the ground, I'll define PCs to have some local storage and some applications that are run locally rather across a network (or the 'Net). It is expected that CII and IDC will make this distinction while they are conducting their surveys.

Typically, these penetration numbers include personal computer purchased both new and used, but do not include home-based PCs owned by a household member's employer.

YES coupons will be paid at 1.00 if the claim is judged true. Claim to be judged 3/31/99 (since it takes both IDC and CII some time to do their household interviews and release their data.)

Judge's Statement

Standard ambiguity clause: If the wording is found to be ambiguous the Panel will judge on the basis of the obvious intent. If the intent is ambiguous the Panel will judge on the basis of precise wording. If both are ambiguous or if both are clear but conflict, the Panel will look for a solution that causes the least damage to FX as a market and game.

Following amendment added 15 Dec 1998:

The Appeals Panel reads the claim HmPC as addressing the actual penetration rate of home computers in the USA at the end of this year (1998).

The Panel reads the claim's judging date as a guideline on and prediction of when the information to adjudicate the claim will be available. Should the relevant information not be available from the prescribed sources on the judging date, the panel will wait until such time as the IDC and CII findings are available to us. The Panel does not have the resources to contract with either of these firms for direct reporting, and must necessarily wait for those findings to reach us through some costless mechanism.

Following amendment added 21 Mar 1999:

CII/Ziff-Davis results avalable at:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/bs/story.html?s=v/nm/19990318/bs/computers_2.html

Barring publication of data from IDC placing the relevant penetration rate at 49.7% or less by April 30, the Panel will judge HmPC YES on or shortly after April 30, 1999.

Lead Panel member: Shawn Winnie (alternate), id=306

The Market

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