Claim IPv6% - Percent IPv6 nodes year 2000

The Claim

There will be an Internet in the year 2000.
If IPv6 is to succeed, we should expect deployment at that time. The value of this claim is set according to the formula:

• Choose some subset of the names listed in the DNS where either an A or an AAAA record exists
• Attempt to connect to the address in the A and/or the AAAA record using an ICMP ECHO
• If either succeeds, count the machine as part of the Internet
• If the IPv6 attempt succeeds, count the machine as part of the IPv6 Internet
• The value is (IPv6Internet/Internet)

The sample size must be at least 1000 names. The number of hosts contacted successfully must be at least 200, with larger numbers preferred. The selection of the subset should be as random as possible among all valid DNS names. The methods used must be available for public review at least 1 month before the measurement starts.

The measurement must take place in January of 2000.

Judge's Statement

I will judge based on the wording of the claim unless it is found to be ambiguous. Such ambiguities will be resolved based on my perception of the author's intent.

I hope it will not be necessary to perform the survey myself. I expect to rely for the results on yet-to-be-identified but widely accepted surveys. If no such survey appears likely to become available in January 2000, I will publish a measurement plan in late 1999.

The Market

Price Plot for life of IPv6%

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