In 2002 there were approximately 1.71 million computer specialists in the United States earning over $50,000/year. How many will there be in 2012? Offshore outsourcing has many IT workers worried that they will lose their jobs to cheaper workers in India and China; meanwhile the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics predicts a 35.8% increase in the number of computer specialists from 2002 and 2012.
The payout of this claim depends on the number of computer specialists in the United States in 2012 who earn over $50,000 per year in 2002 dollars. It will pay 100 if the number of such jobs increases by 35% to more than 2.31 million. It will pay 0 if the number of such jobs falls by 35% to less than 1.11 million. Otherwise it pays 1 cent per 11,983 such jobs beyond the first 1,112,721. For example, if the number of such jobs is unchanged at 1,711,879 this claim pays 50.
In 2002 the BLS statistics were given as percentiles so we can use a linear interpolation to estimate the exact number earning more than $50k. For example, 75% of programmers earned more than $45,960, 50% earned more than $60,290, so (50 + 25 * (60290-50000)/(60290-45960)) approximately 67.95% of computer programmers earned more than $50k, or 339,0780 of the 449,000. The data for 2002 are given in the table below.
(50 + 25 * (60290-50000)/(60290-45960))
Judging of the claim may be delayed until the 2012 statistics have been published. If the Bureau publishes data that allows for a more accurate estimate of the number of computer specialists earning over $50k/yr in 2002 dollars for either 2002 or 2012 then the judge may opt to use the more accurate estimate.
In the event of ambiguity regarding judgment of this claim, the claim will be judged based on its intent.