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Claim ITJOBS - 35% more US IT jobs 2002-2012

Category: Finance:US Finance bid 73, ask 80, last 74
Owner:5591, happy
Judge:6477, math
created:2004/04/20
due date:2013/01/01

The Claim

In 2002 there were approximately 1.71 million computer specialists in the United States earning over $50,000/year. How many will there be in 2012? Offshore outsourcing has many IT workers worried that they will lose their jobs to cheaper workers in India and China; meanwhile the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics predicts a 35.8% increase in the number of computer specialists from 2002 and 2012.

The payout of this claim depends on the number of computer specialists in the United States in 2012 who earn over $50,000 per year in 2002 dollars. It will pay 100 if the number of such jobs increases by 35% to more than 2.31 million. It will pay 0 if the number of such jobs falls by 35% to less than 1.11 million. Otherwise it pays 1 cent per 11,983 such jobs beyond the first 1,112,721. For example, if the number of such jobs is unchanged at 1,711,879 this claim pays 50.

How do we count computer specialists?

This claim will be judged on the basis of statistics published by the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics, or its successor. In 2002 the BLS categories for computer specialists were: computer programmer, computer analysts, database administrators, and computer scientists, software engineers, and system administrators. Computer support roles and information systems managers were excluded because those jobs do not typically require a degree related to computing. For 2012 the judge should try to use the statistics for the same job categories. If the categories change then the data for job categories that often require a degree related to computing should be used.

In 2002 the BLS statistics were given as percentiles so we can use a linear interpolation to estimate the exact number earning more than $50k. For example, 75% of programmers earned more than $45,960, 50% earned more than $60,290, so (50 + 25 * (60290-50000)/(60290-45960)) approximately 67.95% of computer programmers earned more than $50k, or 339,0780 of the 449,000. The data for 2002 are given in the table below.

BLS Job CategoryTotal Employed90% above75% above50% above25% above 10% aboveEst. Above $50k
computer programmers499,000$35,080 $45,960$60,290$78,140$96,860339,080
computer application software engineers394,000$44,830 $55,510$70,900$88,660$109,800325,991
computer systems analysts468,000$39,270 $49,500$62,890$78,350$93,400346,631
computer systems software engineers281,000$45,890 $58,500$74,040$91,160$111,600239,162
network and computer systems administrators251,000$34,460 $43,290$54,810$69,530$86,440151,700
network systems and data communications analysts186,000$34,880 $44,850$58,420$74,290$92,110121,853
other computer specialists192,000?? $54,070??103,226
database administrators110,000$30,750$40,550 $55,480$75,100$9291065,094
computer and information scientists23,000$42,890 $58,630$77,750$98,490$121,64019,142
Approximate Number Of Computer Specialists Earning Over $50,000/yr in 20021,711,879

Judging of the claim may be delayed until the 2012 statistics have been published. If the Bureau publishes data that allows for a more accurate estimate of the number of computer specialists earning over $50k/yr in 2002 dollars for either 2002 or 2012 then the judge may opt to use the more accurate estimate.

Judge's Statement

In the event of ambiguity regarding judgment of this claim, the claim will be judged based on its intent.

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