Claim ITJOBS - 35% more US IT jobs 2002-2012

The Claim

In 2002 there were approximately 1.71 million computer specialists in the United States earning over $50,000/year. How many will there be in 2012? Offshore outsourcing has many IT workers worried that they will lose their jobs to cheaper workers in India and China; meanwhile the United States Bureau of Labour Statistics predicts a 35.8% increase in the number of computer specialists from 2002 and 2012.

The payout of this claim depends on the number of computer specialists in the United States in 2012 who earn over $50,000 per year in 2002 dollars. It will pay 100 if the number of such jobs increases by 35% to more than 2.31 million. It will pay 0 if the number of such jobs falls by 35% to less than 1.11 million. Otherwise it pays 1 cent per 11,983 such jobs beyond the first 1,112,721. For example, if the number of such jobs is unchanged at 1,711,879 this claim pays 50.

How do we count computer specialists?

In 2002 the BLS statistics were given as percentiles so we can use a linear interpolation to estimate the exact number earning more than $50k. For example, 75% of programmers earned more than $45,960, 50% earned more than $60,290, so (50 + 25 * (60290-50000)/(60290-45960)) approximately 67.95% of computer programmers earned more than $50k, or 339,0780 of the 449,000. The data for 2002 are given in the table below.

BLS Job Category	Total Employed	90% above	75% above	50% above	25% above	10% above	Est. Above $50k
computer programmers	499,000	$35,080	$45,960	$60,290	$78,140	$96,860	339,080
computer application software engineers	394,000	$44,830	$55,510	$70,900	$88,660	$109,800	325,991
computer systems analysts	468,000	$39,270	$49,500	$62,890	$78,350	$93,400	346,631
computer systems software engineers	281,000	$45,890	$58,500	$74,040	$91,160	$111,600	239,162
network and computer systems administrators	251,000	$34,460	$43,290	$54,810	$69,530	$86,440	151,700
network systems and data communications analysts	186,000	$34,880	$44,850	$58,420	$74,290	$92,110	121,853
other computer specialists	192,000	?	?	$54,070	?	?	103,226
database administrators	110,000	$30,750	$40,550	$55,480	$75,100	$92910	65,094
computer and information scientists	23,000	$42,890	$58,630	$77,750	$98,490	$121,640	19,142
Approximate Number Of Computer Specialists Earning Over $50,000/yr in 2002							1,711,879

Judging of the claim may be delayed until the 2012 statistics have been published. If the Bureau publishes data that allows for a more accurate estimate of the number of computer specialists earning over $50k/yr in 2002 dollars for either 2002 or 2012 then the judge may opt to use the more accurate estimate.

Judge's Statement

In the event of ambiguity regarding judgment of this claim, the claim will be judged based on its intent.

The Market

   413 @ 1   jar (6504)
  1000 @ 1   crandles (7886)
    50 @ 5   globalInsight (8461)
    20 @ 20  jar (6504)
   100 @ 20  Wade Enterprises (9004)
    10 @ 35  jar (6504)
    60 @ 35  crandles (7886)
     1 @ 62  GTmechanic (9750)
    10 @ 63  jar (6504)
   467 @ 63  crandles (7886)
    70 @ 75  crandles (7886)
     

Price Plot for life of ITJOBS

Last trade price: 90 Current ask price: 90 Current bid price: 75 Pairs outstanding: 576 Players participating: 17 View the ticker for this Claim. Your cash balance: 1685.16 Your holdings in this Claim: 6 Your UID: Your password:

   400 @ 90  crandles (7886)
     5 @ 90  Karl Hallowell (73)
   200 @ 95  crandles (7886)
    13 @ 95  Karl Hallowell (73)
    10 @ 99  jar (6504)
     1 @ 99  crandles (7886)