Claim IraqED - Free elections in Iraq < 3 yrs

The Claim

Free elections to elect parliament and/or president will be held in Iraq before the 1st April 2006.

To be considered free, elections must be claimed as such by international observers and involve at least two concurrent political parties.

Judge's Statement

In cases of ambiguity I will judge the claim based on its intent. I will not judge the claim until the time period expires.

• The claim will be judged YES if there is a freely elected body or office similar to a parliament or president even if differently named; but I will judge the claim NO if the elected officials do not have authority over taxation, budgeting, law making, law enforcement, and treaty ratification. If national defense were under foreign control, I would still judge it YES provided that these civilian powers were in the hands of the elected officials.
• The claim will be judged NO if there is substantial controversy over whether the elections were free: If the official observers or leaders of a major Western democracy (including France) asserts that the elections were not free then the claim will be judged NO.
• I will judge the claim YES even if there are not formal political parties (with membership, nominations, etc.), providing that there are competing factions which field candidates for the same office.

UPDATE: It does not matter whether the elections are part of a one-time process, or under a final constitution, providing that the resulting elected body has sovereign control of the country (eg: not subject to a foreign veto, as is the current Governing Council).

UPDATE: An election has been held in Iraq. The election appears to satisfy most of the claim conditions; additional time will be required to determine whether it meets all of them. In particular, the election has more than two political parties, it was for the equivalent of a parliament/president, and it occurred before the April 2006 deadline. What remains to be seen is whether it was "free" or not.

I will eventually judge the claim YES unless the election observers or the leadership of a major Western democracy assert that the elections were not free.

The Market

Price Plot for life of IraqED

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