Claim NextCD - CDs no longer dominant format

The Claim

Within the next 10 years, CDs will no longer be the dominant medium for prerecorded audio distribution in the US. This claim will be judged true if, for any year up to and including 2012, manufacturers' US shipments of prerecorded audio on conventional CDs are less than the combined shipments of prerecord audio on other formats, according to the RIAA.

The intent of the claim is that a next-generation audio medium, such as DVD-Audio or Super Audio CD (SACD), will claim a significant portion of the industry market.

RIAA figures for 2000 were 976.7 million CDs and CD singles shipped vs. 87.6 million for all other applicable formats. (Shipment figures for 1991-2000 can be found here.)

CONDITIONS: Music video sales are irrelevant to the claim. Manufacture of mixed media (e.g. audio plus video) may be counted towards the claim if the audio-only experience of the item intended as the item's primary draw.

An example of this would be "Enhanced CDs," which play as standard CDs in most machines (albeit with some incompatibility issues with older CD players), but also have special bonus features when played on PCs. For purposes of this claim, these discs would be judged as conventional CDs.

Another possible example of this would be DVD-Audio discs which include video supplements. These would most likely be included in the count; however, inclusion would depend on several factors, such as whether a significant portion of the disc is intended to be enjoyed on audio-only systems. If a market trend develops such that audio-only releases are no longer common and the RIAA is no longer distinguishing between standard formats and 'Music Video' releases, the judge may opt to include mixed media sales towards the claim. The judge's decision will be final on inclusion.

SACDs, or any similar technology which are playable on conventional CD players, yet also include higher quality audio playable only on specialized machines would count as a next-generation medium, and not as a conventional CD.

Also, internet music downloads are irrelevant to the claim.

If by the judgement date the RIAA no longer exists, no longer publishes US Manufacturers' Shipment figures, or doesn't adequately distinguish between conventional CDs and SACDs, DVD-Audio discs or other next-generation media, the judge may substitute another reputable source. This claim will be judged when the RIAA or appropriate authority releases their 2012 manufacturers' shipments report, or if/when any previous year's report satisfies the conditions of the claim.

Judge's Statement

In any cases of ambiguity, I will judge based on my best interpretation of the intent of the claim. If the intent is ambiguous, I will judge based on the precise wording. If both are ambiguous, I will look for a solution that causes the least damage to FX as a market.

I see a few points of ambiguity, which I must clarify:

• The claim shall only apply to music purchased in a physical form, and not to music where no physical object was also purchased. I reach this statement because of the claim's quotes: The intent of the claim is that a next-generation audio medium, such as DVD-Audio or Super Audio CD (SACD), will claim a significant portion of the industry market. and Also, internet music downloads are irrelevant to the claim. For example, if a music device will exist that people can purchase songs for and download songs to, but no physical object is bought with the songs, these downloads do not count toward this claim.
• The claim states that Manufacture of mixed media (e.g. audio plus video) may be counted towards the claim if the audio-only experience of the item intended as the item's primary draw.. I will defer to the RIAA for their determination of what the 'primary draw' of a purchased piece is. If the RIAA at this point does not distinguish between mostly audio purchases and mixed media purchases, purchases where more than 50% of the raw, uninterpreted data is sound will be considered part of the claim, and where 50% or less of the raw, uninterpreted data is sound will be excluded from the claim.
• The U.S. consists of the land governed by the United States. Should the United States no longer be a nation in 2013, the U.S. shall refer to the land governed by the United States on the date the claim was created (5 January 2002).

The Market

Price Plot for life of NextCD

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