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Claim RACE - Whites US Minority by 2060

Category: News:US News bid 74, ask 79, last 75
Owner:38, highlander
Judge:57, Robin Hanson
due date:2060/01/01

The Claim

The US census has projected that non-Hispanic whites will become a minority of US citizens and permanent residents sometime in the middle of the 21st century. Historically, the US census figures have been overly conservative in estimating how fast the racial shift of population in the US will occur.

This claim is judged "YES" if:

  1. The US census reports that the minority of the population in the existing 50 states and the District of Columbia are white are and non-Hispanic before 2060.
  2. The US census ceases to report statistics on race for any reason (in such a way that the white, non-Hispanic population can be easily discerned).
  3. The borders of the US change in such a way that some portion containing more than 1% of the population of the lower 48 states and the District of Columbia is no longer reported on by the US census. (Alaska and Hawaii are specifically exempted from this clause, i.e. if either or both of these states opt out of the US, the claim still stands). (The existing district of Columbia will be included even if it is converted to a state or other legal status).

Each "YES" coupon plays $0.25 each decare before 2060 and after and including 2020 , that the US census reports a minority of the US population is white and non-Hispanic (or any other of the above "YES" criteria occur). (i.e. the census years 2020,2030,2040,2050) with the remainder of the credibill going to the "NO" coupon holders.

Judge's Statement


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