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Claim SARS - Scaled deaths from SARS

Category: News:World News Science & Technology:Medicine, Biochemistry JUDGED at 4
Owner:73, Karl Hallowell
Judge:3126, Varulv
created:2003/04/03
due date:2005/01/31

The Claim

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome or SARS is apparently a new illness originating in Southern China that has infected a number of people particularly in Southeast Asia. This claim pays to YES coupon holders Log_10(N/500)*20 FX cents rounded to the nearest integer with minimum of 0 and maximum of 100. Here, "Log_10" is the base 10 logrithm. "N" is the number of deaths attributed to SARS worldwide by the World Health Organization (reported no later than the end of January 2005) for the time period November 1, 2002 - December 31, 2004. If SARS turns out to be caused by multiple agents, then sum the deaths from each agent as counted by WHO.

N payout
500 0
5000 20
50,000 40
500,000 60
5,000,000 80
50,000,000 100

Judge's Statement

On 2005-FEB-01, the last report from the WHO dating from 2004-APR-21 says there were 774 deaths that could be attributed to SARS. Log_10(774/500)*20 = 3.795, or rounded to the nearest integer 4.

The Market

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Current ask price: 100
Current bid price: 0
Pairs outstanding: 666
Players participating: 23
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