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Claim T2015 - True on Jan 1 2015

Category: Science & Technology:Idea Futures (and Experimental Claims) JUDGED at 100
Owner:4176, DavidSJ
Judge:4309, mik
due date:2015/01/01

The Claim

This claim is automatically judged true on Jan 1, 2015. Its purpose is to determine how much FX investors will pay for a guaranteed long term small profit. Some people have said in fx-discuss that they can easily make 5-10%/year in short term claims; if this feeling is widespread, the maximum offer to buy T2015 will be significantly less than 99.

Another way of thinking about this claim is that it's a bet that you're not going to find anything more attractive to do with your cash between now and 2015. Sellers are betting that you will.

Note that someone who sells a YES at 99 (buys a NO at 1) and later buys it back at 98 (sells it at 2) has doubled her money.

See also T2007.

Judge's Statement


The Market

Price Plot for life of T2015
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