Terrorists will obtain nuclear capability by the year 1999.
Ambiguity clause: I will judge this claim based on its precise wording, unless this wording conflicts with my perception of the intent of the claim. If both intent and wording are ambiguous, I will look for a solution that causes the least damage to FX as a market and game. If you have any questions, or think you may have found a loophole, please contact me!!
"Nuclear capability" refers to a nuclear fusion of fission bomb. Radiation weapons (e.g. plutonium dust dispersed via a conventional explosive device) are explicitely excluded, as are terrorist attacks on nuclear waste sites or nuclear reactors using conventional weapons.
In order for a group to have nuclear capability, they must at the very least be in posession of the materials and knowledge to manufacture a nuclear fission or fusion bomb, and have started to assemble such a device. Posession of a nuclear warhead would of course suffice as well. It is not necessary for the group to actually use, threaten to use, or announce posession of such a device. However, the fact that they have nuclear capability must be known by 1999/01/01.
I have yet to find a good definition of "terrorist" (suggestions welcome...). I think it should include at least the following points:
