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Claim Y2Knuc - Y2K % Nuke Plants operational

Category: Science & Technology:Technology JUDGED at 98
Owner:38, highlander
Judge:723, Mario Hilgemeier
created:1998/08/26
due date:2000/03/15

The Claim

Yes Coupons pay the percentage of nuclear power plants in the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, The United Kingdom and France which are listed in the database at:

International Nuclear Safety Center (INSC)

as Operable of 1998/9/21 which are still listed in this database as operable as of 2000/2/15. (i.e. the number of operable plants as of 2000/2/15-that were operable as of 1998/9/15 divided by the number of plants operable as of 1998/9/21).

In the event that the above database is not operational or the internet is down the judge may substitute on appropriate authoritative source. The intent of this claim is to assess what percentage of nuclear power plants may be brought down in large, well-developed, politically stable countries for a prolonged period of time because of Y2K problems. Another claim, Y2Knuk measures the probability of a major nuclear accident near this time.

Background:

  • As of September 21,1998, there were approximately 292 operational nuclear reactors in France, Germany, The United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and the United States according to: International Nuclear Safety Center (INSC) (This list has been posted of fx-discuss@ideosphere.com for archival purposes)

  • Background material on major nuclear plant events is available at: The Virtual Nuclear Tourist-Events

  • Background material on the Y2K issue and nuclear plants is available via: The Virtual Nuclear Tourist-Current Topics

    Judge's Statement

    The list posted on fx-propose 1998-09-21 contains 292 nuclear power plants marked as Operable. Split up by country:

    • 109 (37.3 %) in the United States
    • 56 (19.2 %) in France
    • 51 (17.5 %) in Japan
    • 35 (12.0 %) in the United Kingdom
    • 22 (7.5 %) in Canada
    • 19 (6.5 %) in Germany

    Split up by type:

    • 161 (55.1 %) Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR)
    • 70 (24.0 %) Boiling Water Reactors (BWR)
    • 22 (7.5 %) Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR, all in Canada)
    • 21 (7.2 %) Gas-Cooled Reactors (GCR, 20 in U.K., 1 in Japan)
    • 14 (4.8 %) Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactors (AGR, all in U.K.)
    • 3 (1.0 %) Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR, 2 in France, 1 in Japan)
    • 1 (0.3 %) Heavy-Water/Light-Water Reactor (Fugen ATR HWLWR, Japan)

    Exemplary Claim Value Table
    (rounded conventionally):
    Operable Reactors Claim value
    1 0.00
    28 0.10
    57 0.20
    87 0.30
    116 0.40
    145 0.50
    174 0.60
    203 0.70
    233 0.80
    262 0.90
    291 1.00

    The help and expertise of coupon holders that supply reliable information sources is much appreciated. Please let me know. On request, I will withhold submitted information.

    From about 2000-03-06 opinions should be voiced on fx-claims.

    I have a degree in nuclear physics but am no longer working in the field. In cases of ambiguity, I will judge by the perceived intent.


    All reactors marked (at INSC) as "operable" on 2000-02-15:

    • USA: 105
    • France: 58
    • Japan: 54
    • United Kingdom: 35
    • Germany: 19
    • Canada: 14

    A sum of 285 reactors. Divided by 292, this yields a claim value of 0.98 (rounded conventionally).

    The Market

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    Current ask price: 100
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