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Claim panflu - flu-pandemic before 2010

Category: News:Disasters JUDGED at 100
Owner:4823, 2km
Judge:38, highlander
created:2006/08/07
due date:2010/01/01

The Claim

there will be an influenza pandemic until 1.1.2010

WHO officially declares the start of an influenza pandemic or goes to phase 6 as in: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html and maintains this position for at least 60 days.

WHO should be the primary source, but if WHO abandons the phases or would no longer issue official comments on the pandemic situation, then the judge is allowed to use other sources. Guideline should be that there were 3 pandemics in the last century, starting in 1918(H1N1),1957(H2N2),1968(H3N2).

A pandemic is a global epidemic, typically 20%-40% of the world's population are infected in a pandemic with the same virus-strain.

There is fear, that the current H5N1 ("bird flu") might mutate or combine with other flu-viruses to form a new pandemic but pandemic caused by other flu-viruses do also count for this claim.

for further information see: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/pandemic/en/index.html http://www.pandemicflu.gov

Judge's Statement

If there are any WHO or similar authoritative sources indicating existance of an influenza pandemic, I will tend to judge this claim true.

Note: "until" in the first line should read "by".

The Market

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