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Claim 2v96 - US Pres 1996: Rep party vote %

Category: Politics:US Politics JUDGED at 41
Owner:0, Bank
Judge:0, Bank
due date:1996/11/12

The Claim

YES pays an amount equal to the percentage of the Republican vote in the 1996 US presidential election. Specifically, this refers to the combined nationwide percentage of all valid votes cast in the election for President of the United States of America in 1996 for the ticket or candidates of the Republican political party. The YES payment shall be rounded up or rounded down to the nearest multiple of 0.01 (eg, 14.1% to 0.14; 14.50% to 0.15).

Clarifications and definitions:

Any vote taken by electors of an Electoral College is not relevant to this claim. Previous or current party affiliation of any candidates is irrelevant. The only criterion is whether they stand for election for President of the United States in 1996 with or without the official endorsement of either Republican or Democratic parties. If a ticket or candidate is endorsed simultaneously by the Republican Party and another party, all of their votes are considered part of the combined vote of the Republican Party.

The term "1996 US presidential election" is understood to apply to the nationwide popular vote scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 1996. However, a change of election date (due to congressional vote, inclement weather, national emergency, etc), or voting spread over multiple dates, shall not affect the claim as long as a nationwide popular vote for President of the United States takes place in 1996.

NO will pay 1.00 if the Republican Party ceases to exist in substantially its present form. Any major official name change by the party will be considered to result in its ceasing to exist.

NO will pay 1.00 if in the consensus opinion of the world community, no election for President of the United States takes place in 1996, or all such elections that take place in 1996 are either not completed before the end of 1996, not nationwide, or not a popular vote. For a "nationwide" vote, voting must take place in at least all the states of the union represented in the Congress (or its successor parliament) as of January 1, 1996, and must be overseen by duly appointed officials owing their allegiance to the same single sovereign entity.

NO will pay 1.00 if a vote does occur and it does not meet any the conditions set out herein.

For a "popular" vote, at least 50% of all American citizens must be constitutionally eligible to vote in elections for President of the United States (whether actually registered to vote or not) as of the date or dates that voting takes place. This 50% includes all categories of citizen without distinction, including children, convicted felons, etc.

An indirect election (eg, one that chooses electors of an Electoral College with the theoretical or actual power to arbitrarily select a President) shall still be considered a popular vote as long as the above condition is fulfilled. For a "completed" vote, substantially all ballots must have been counted, and the results must have been reported as final and not subject to fraud or dispute by the overwhelming majority of national and international media. As of September 1995, examples of such media might include the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Economist, the BBC, etc.

Uncounted ballots or minor vote recounts affecting less than 0.5% of the total vote shall not prevent the voting from being considered complete for the purpose of this claim.

No election will be considered to have taken place if the office of President of the United States is abolished and remains abolished in the United States Constitution or its successor documents or charters. No election will be considered to have taken place if the United States of America ceases to exist as a sovereign entity in the consensus opinion of the world community. The Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia are cited as examples of such a condition being fulfilled.

If more than one election for President of United States by nationwide popular vote takes place and is completed in 1996, the judgment will be based on the first such election. Voting that takes place on more than one calendar date does not constitute more than one election unless ballots from earlier voting dates are disregarded in new voting. Any actions taken or not taken by electors of any Electoral College, including failure to follow their mandates, or failure to elect a President, shall not be relevant for the purposes of this claim.

This claim is scheduled to be judged on Tuesday, Nov 12, 1996, and will be judged no later than Jan 2, 1997.

See also 1v96, 3v96.

Judge's Statement


The Market

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