Kirkpatrick Sale will win his bet with Kevin Kelly. See Wired 3.06 page 216. Mr. Kelly proposed the bet, saying, "I bet you $1000 that in the year 2020, we're not even close ot the kind of disaster you describe--a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be close." Each of the parties has written a check to the publisher they share, Bill Patrick at Addison Wesley.
Judge's update as of 2021-07-18: Bill Patrick determined that Kevin Kelly won.
See the Wired article describing the judgment.
Judge's update as of 2020-05-04: I have exchanged email with Patrick, Kelly, and Sale. They expect to settle the outcome of the bet shortly after 2021-01-01.
The Wired article referenced above can now be found in a new location in Wired's archive.
YES coupons in NLud are, broadly speaking, a bet that disaster *does* occur. I will not "override" Bill Patrick's judgement.
I will judge based on the intent of this claim, if I perceive such intent to be obvious. If such intent is ambiguous I will judge on the basis of the precise wording. If both are ambiguous, I will look for a solution which follows IF/FX precedent insofar as such precedent is apparent to me and applicable to the claim. I will seek the guidance of the claim's owner/author in interpreting the claim. It's his or her question - s/he ought to get the answer sought. If I believe this claim to have met a YES or NO condition, and if I believe judgement will be controversial, I will post a prospective judgement to fx-discuss and forestall entering the judgement for a comment period to be announced in the post.
