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Claim SWING - # of "swing" states Nov. 2004

Category: Politics:US Politics JUDGED at 40
Owner:5881, Thales
Judge:3126, Varulv
created:2004/02/05
due date:2005/01/29

The Claim

Scaled claim based on the number of states which change their party votes for U.S. President from 2000 to 2004.

If every state votes for the same party in 2004 that it voted for in 2000, this claim pays 50%.

ADD 10% for each state which voted Republican in 2000, that votes Democrat in 2004.

SUBTRACT 10% for each state which voted Democrat in 2000, that votes Republican in 2004.

Results get capped at 100% (if there is a net gain of over 5 states for Democrats) or at 0% (if there is a net gain of over 5 states for Republicans).

A state is considered to "vote" for a party if it allocates a majority of its electors to vote for that party's candidate.

The states to watch out for (those with a <5% split in the 2000 election) are:

 State   Party Split Split % 
---------------------------------------
Florida R 537 >0.01%
New Mexico D 364 0.1%
Wisconsin D 5708 0.2%
Iowa D 4144 0.3%
Oregon R 6765 0.5%
New Hampshire R 7211 1.3%
Minnesota D 58607 2.4%
Missouri R 78786 3.3%
Nevada R 21597 3.5%
Tennessee R 80229 3.8%
Pennsylvania D 204840 4.2%
Ohio R 165019 4.5%

Official elections results by state are available from the FEC at http://www.fec.gov/elections.html . The above table was compiled from data available at http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/datagraph.php?&year=2000&fips=0 .

Judge's Statement

Comparing the results for 2004 to the results for 2000 at www.uselectionatlas.org gives the following results:

  • Iowa (D -> R, -10)
  • New Hampshire (R -> D, +10)
  • New Mexico (D -> R, -10)
Therefore, this claim is judged at 40.

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